2026 Fraud Management Trends

The past year has shown an alarming increase in complex fraud schemes that exploit humans and technology. The fraud landscape in 2026 and beyond will experience significant changes due to three main trends: rapidly evolving mule activity, the importance of distinguishing between agentic commerce bots and malicious automation, and the imminent threat that phantom hacker scams pose to consumers across all demographics. 

Money mules of all kinds, whether unwitting, witting, or complicit, are enabled by a banking system that is generally wary of sharing relevant information across borders to industry peers. Mule activity has spiked in 2025. At the same time, bots have become a topic worthy of discussion as agentic commerce becomes a reality. FIs asking themselves “is this a bot?” need to begin asking a different question: Is this a bot I can trust? And finally, intensified by the accessibility of AI, three-step phantom hacker scams will extend their reach beyond primarily older consumers, and criminals will adapt their schemes to target younger consumers and those willing to take risks through new payment channels or tech advancements. 

These trends require FIs to be flexible and willing to adapt to new technologies that provide stronger defenses against some of the costliest forms of fraud and scams.